In November, the sales of excavators were 13 thousand and 800 (+107%), and the single month sales reached second high in November.
According to the statistics of China Engineering Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Branch Industry Statistics (express), the sales volume of excavators was 126 thousand and 300 in the month of 2017, which increased by 99.2% in the year of 2017. In November, the sales of excavators reached 13 thousand and 800 units, up 107.4% from the same period, and the sales volume in November was second only to 14 thousand and 400 in November 2010. The sales of excavators in 2017 are expected to be nearly 140 thousand, and the growth rate is nearly doubled over the same period.
According to the past 5 years (2012-2016 years) excavator sales historical data, the fourth quarter of the year (10, November, December) monthly sales volume increased month by month, December sales data is higher than November. We expect to sell nearly 140 thousand units in 2017, nearly doubling the year on year growth. As in 2017, it reached 140 thousand, which was equivalent to about 79% of the year 2011 (178 thousand units) in the highest year of history. Considering that in 2011, imports of more than 30 thousand units, the apparent consumption of more than 210 thousand units, equivalent to the annual demand to restore to the highest year in 2011 of about 67%.
Excavator forecast model: it is expected to sell 170 thousand units in 2018, an increase of 20-30% over the same period.
According to the excavator forecast model, we expect sales in 2018 to reach around 170 thousand, growth 20-30%! Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 will continue to exceed the expected data.
In November, the export of excavators increased by 27.5%.
In 1-11 months of 2017, export sales were 8400, up 27.5% and 12.3%. In November 2017, export sales were 922, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, and an increase of 5.9%.
In the middle of 11 months, the fastest growth was 154.7%, and the growth rate of 1-11 months was the fastest, reaching 154%.
Domestic market: November small dig (20 tons) sales of 7650 units, an increase of 101.2%, growth of 36.2%, accounting for 59% of total sales; dig (20~30 tons) sales of 3273 units, an increase of 154.7%, growth of 30.6%, accounting for 25% of total sales; the big dig (30 tons) sales of 1962 Taiwan, an increase of 132%, growth of 27.6%, accounting for 15% of total sales. In 1-11 months, the growth rate was the fastest, up to 154%, the growth rate was 138%, and the growth rate was 90%.
Construction machinery: 2018-2020 years of continuous recovery; excavators, truck cranes and other changes to meet the peak.
We see that in the past 2010-2011 years, the sales volume of excavators is at a historical peak. After 8 years' cycle (the life of excavators is around 8 years), we predict that the excavator will usher in the peak of replacement in 2018-2019 years. The service life of concrete machinery and truck cranes is longer than that of excavators for 2 years, and is expected to usher in peak replacement in 2020-2021 years. This round of construction machinery industry recovery will last longer.
Excavator industry drive: infrastructure demand, update demand superposition, environmental promotion, and competition pattern improvement.